If form means anything at all, this is an opportunitty to "fill your boots".
Anything better than 1/4 will do! So 4/7 is terrific value.
Now fit, he's at least 20 lb better than any rival.
But be aware, there's no such thing as a certainty, so don't chance the rent money!
Merry Christmas all
........Kauto Star is rated 184 by Timeform - joint-sixth in the all-time ratings - while Arkle's best rating was 212
Those who were around to see "Himself" wouldn't dispute the difference between greatness and, well, Singularity.
I never have more than a modest bet on odds-on chances - no matter what the differential between their probability and the odds offered. It doesn't take that much courage to put 10% of your bank (I never, ever, bet more than 10% of the bank!) onto something as probable as Kauto Star winning. There's "filling your boots" and then there's "emptying your brains"!
Mathematical probabilities can't account for a horse sticking both feet into the front of a fence - they all have the capability of doing daft things occasionally. Usually only when we're all over-staked!
I'll be very happy for him to win comfortably and buy me just a couple of drinks. And I won't be throwing myself out of the window if he loses!
BTW I have a very knowledgeable friend who was on Denman large on both Henesseys and the Gold Cup victory, who just won't hear of defeat today. He has had a massive bet at a price worthy of his courage, and if Kauto were to have an off day it would be so good to see his bravery rewarded.
But I do think only a fall or serious mistake stands between Kauto Star and the winner's enclosure.....