Laying Halfway House Brighton 4.00

[Dave McAuley]

For my lay bet I was tempted to take on Surprise Party in the 3.50 at Haydock. She is up against some class droppers and is only 5th on my ratings but the record of favourites in such races at Yarmouth is a fairly high 36% and the trainers overall and recent strike-rate tempers enthusiasm as does his confidence in the filly.

The 30% strike-rate for favourites in the 4:00 at Brighton is also far from ideal in percentage terms but we do have 14 other horses running for us against HALFWAY HOUSE in this race. His last two wins have come in Class 6 handicap company against 8 and 9 rivals where the gaps opened for him at the right time but with the big step up in class to a Class 4 against older opposition and bigger field you just have to feel he will trade bigger in-running than his current 3.25, especially considering he is a hold-up horse and ridden by Jamie Spencer .

He narrowly won a Class6 at the track but is 22b higher now in a much more competitive race. Another factor could be that both his wins have come on fast ground and if the RP site/weather forecast is to be believed then heavy rain is forecast although looks sunny enough to me at the moment :-). The only downside is the trainers record at the track but he is only 3/30 in the last 2 weeks.

http://FormBet.co.uk

[Dave McAuley]

Cheers mate, had to sweat it though ;-) The withdrawals certainly didn't help with the theory but result that counts I guess !

[Richard Stoddart]

Good shout Dave.

[Dave McAuley]

Yes sorry got my numbers wrong there but beating 50/60 rated runners in small fields in his own age group and then taking on 70/80 rated older horses in a bigger field screams lay to me at around the 2/1 - 9/4 mark. I'll be monitoring the in-running prices closely as I am sure Spencer will try to find trouble if he can ;-)

[Richard Stoddart]

I think the bigger field and likely stronger pace will suit him. Really impressive last time, despite it only being a Class 6. He's actually only 14lb higher than his win here (won off 59, racing off 73 today), and only 8lb higher than last win when he won with about a stone in hand meaning he's probably 6lb well-in. Agree that u might get a bigger price in-running, but sometimes these hold up favs don't drift in-running if they look like they are cantering in-behind.

[john Tuohy]

Good Stuff Dave.