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Kauto Star

KAUTO STAR

Here's a name that draws forth the Experts,what's the score thern, for the upcoming meeting?

Is this the world's greatest, what's the view fromthe Sports Exchange tyros [Adonis?]

TELL US NOW!

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Comment by Gordon McIvor Wilson on February 4, 2011 at 3:26: Morning chaps! Impressed that Richard, proprietor of the mighty Betcatalyst micro-publishing empire, has just got around to commenting on a 3-week old piece. Very welcome, dont get me wrong. Mind you, with 3500 Twitter addicts following his every breath Tweet, must take him a while to react.

So who's riding Kauto Star at the Festival then?

Comment by Adonis First on February 3, 2011 at 20:37: I find it hard to swallow the argument that AP McCoy rides any horse in a manner that equates to a 2 STONE penalty (compared to how Ruby would ride it). Kauto would, IMHO, have lost by the same (or more) no matter who rode him that day.

Sure there's differences in riding style, but on balancing all of the quirks and attributes a horse can put to a jockey, it's my opinion (only an opinion though!) that AP is worth several pounds advantage, over a race distance, over any of his contemporaries - or, for that matter, any jockey before today's. I really feel he's THAT good.

I have a feeling that a good judge of horsemanship - Francome - would probably endorse that. I wonder if anyone will ever ask him that question in front of the cameras. Well away from all current jocks, of course, so that he doesn't feel obliged to be "nice" to the incumbent Morning Line guest.....

But I suppose we'll just have to continue watching the bling-laden, cantankerous Old Hobo spitting feathers about some other nonentity instead! Surely, one Saturday he'll turn up in just his underpants?.........

Comment by Richard Stoddart on February 3, 2011 at 13:15: Analogy: And if you had a driver for your Rolls Royce he get to know the car really well over the years. He'd know how best to handle it, its qurks and nuances, how best to get the thing from A to B in either the quickest or efficient of means.

If that driver then took ill you'd probably get someone to cover him. More than likely he wouldn't have driven your model of Rolls Royce before or even a Rolls Royce at all. He's not going to know its quirks and nuances and 99% certain to not be able to give you a good a ride as your usual driver.

I wasn't saying that they picked McCoy becuase they knew Kauto would be unsuited by him. What I am saying is that he doesn't ride the Nicholls horses as well as Ruby as his record clearly demonstrates and for that reason I'd be unlikely to back horses in similar situations.

Comment by Gordon McIvor Wilson on January 17, 2011 at 18:48: Errmmm....Betcatalyst?

Mind you, what's the motor got to do with the price of fish?

Comment by Adonis First on January 17, 2011 at 14:14: Hmmmm.

Nichols knows the way AP rides. So he booked a jock LIKELY to be unsuited to Kauto?

I doubt that ANY owner would think highly of anyone who tries to tell them who they can or can't put up as jock, or trainer etc etc.

They pay the piper, THEY call the tune.

If the punters don't agree with their choices, er.... tough!

Analogy: If I ever get to owning a Rolls Royce, I'm damned if I'll listen to some wiseguy trying to tell me who , when or where would be best to drive it! My car: My choice.

Comment by Gordon McIvor Wilson on January 16, 2011 at 14:17: Cautionary tales from the course, strikes me there's often a lot of unknowns about form, and who knows, and who does anything about it. Racing version of the Donald Rumsfeld conundrum : known knowns, known unknowns; unknown unknown(s). Dodgy business all round, that's a known known!

Bit of a different take on the event from Betcatalyst who writes (as always) knowingly:

NEW!: King George Postscript: McCoy not the man for Nicholls' stars (?) and an overreaction by bookmakers!http://www.betcatalyst.com/?p=3930

Comment by Adonis First on January 15, 2011 at 17:07: (My stake was even lowlier than I'd inferred earlier, so this isn't pocket-talk)

Did two horses each improve 2+ stone?

Or was Kauto at least a stone and a half below form today?

The latter is my take..... The Long Run hasn't improved to be a "190" horse.

So........

The Big Question:

What cautionary signals were we (or his trainer, owner) given/giving that he was THAT much below par?

As far as I can see, none.

So we have to accept that a horse can be that much below form and no-one knows beforehand.....

Takes a bit of swallowing, that.

For me, not NEARLY as hard to swallow as Workforce's up-and-down form between the Derby and the Arc!

Ah, racing.

The Sport of Kings.......and Paupers!

Comment by Gordon McIvor Wilson on January 3, 2011 at 14:45: Kauto Star: treat in store, I 'm told, later in the month.

Just opening up after the hols, catching up.

Bat 'n ball things seem to be shaping up well in Oz, who'd 'a thought it, my Twitter view overwhelmed by Aggers mouthings. Rain in Sydney, wont stop the Poms, used to it.

Comment by Gordon McIvor Wilson on December 23, 2010 at 19:59: So when's this race, then?

Must be 'off' for adverse weather.

So, now, AP McCoy the champion of champions...

Comment by Adonis First on December 23, 2010 at 13:13: Interesting, and like many Great Debates, insoluble!

There were no "O.R."'s in Arkle's day, though Timeform rated him 212 (!)

Mill House was rated 191 - a useful comparative benchmark.

Timeform rate Kauto Star 191 as well.

So.... from a purely Timeform perspective, Arkle is 21 lbs better than Kauto star. (A stone and a half)

My opinion is that, relatively, Kauto Star is NOT as close to Arkle as Mill House was. And that Mill House wasn't able to beat Arkle unless given a bit more than 21lbs....

And there we must agree to disagree. But best wishes that your assessments are accurate enough to produce the necessary profits!

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