Kauto Star

[Gordon McIvor Wilson]

 

KAUTO STAR

 

Here's a name that draws forth the Experts,what's the score thern, for the upcoming meeting?

 

Is this the world's greatest, what's the view fromthe Sports Exchange tyros [Adonis?]

 

TELL US NOW!

[Richard Stoddart]

 

Horse	Age	Weight	OR	R	TR	RH	G	D	GR	PL	JB
Albertas Run	9	164	168	21					A1	F	APM
Burton Port	6	164	166	7					A2	2
Forpadydeplasterer	8	164	167	12					A1	2	RT
Kauto Star	10	164	190	25					A1	1	NF
Long Run	5	164	162	8					A1	3	SWC
Madison Du Berlais	9	164	157	39					A2	F
Nacarat	9	164	158	21					A2	4	PB
Noland	9	164	157	5					A1	1
Ollie Magern	12	164	145	42					A1	4
Planet Of Sound	8	164	163	11					A1	3	RJ
Riverside Theatre	6	164	160	5					A2	1
Sizing Europe	8	164	160	8					A1	2
The Nightingale	7	164	167	4					A2	1
What A Friend	7	164	159	8					A1	5

 

Key

OR = Official Rating

R = Chase Runs

TR = Have they won on a similar track - sharp, less emphasis on stamina than most tracks?

RH = Have they won RH?

G = Going, do they go on the ground? Unknown ground conditions at present

D = Distance, have they won over the distance?

GR = Grade, what is the best grade they've won in?

PL = Place last time out

JB = Jockey Booking

 

Green = Yes/Favourable

Amber = Maybe, lightly-raced enough that they they could/not enough evidence to say categorically no

Red = No/Unfavourable

 

Kauto Star, even as a 10yo, should have too much for his rivals. He certainly wasn't given credit fot his comeback run when he beat two decent and race-fit rivals comfortably in the end, and it certainly seemed to me that he was actually going away at the finish.

 

The key to the race is the pace that is likely to be set by the trailblazing Nacarat. In essence, despite it being a 3m race you need something that can travel at a decent clip early doors as if they can't they'll be under pressure trying to make ground and that is when jumping errors occur. Amazingly this race is full of horses who can travel at a decent clip, and if Kauto Star is to win he must avoid the likely scrimmage to get a good early position. It is also this pace that then requires the winner to have stamina at the business end, and not many have that guaranteed. Indeed there are only two horses in the race that have pace and stamina, plus are winners of a Grade 1 Chase over 3m on a RH track, and that is Kauto Star and Planet Of Sound..

 

I reckon Kauto Star will be as impressive as last year and at the prices he is value at 11-10 best price. Indeed just go to the Racing Post homepage and they have a poll which has Kauto Star with the backing of 60% of the people that answered 'Who will win the King George?' Given that they must have a large amount of people answer that Q I reckon they are brilliant example of 'true market' and that he'll go off nearer the 4-6 price they have him.

 

Planet Of Sound is a good e/w alternative at around 16-1 and is 8-1 w/o Kauto in the race, which seems a decent bet.

 

As far as the old Arkle debate, there's no way he could give Kauto Star 2st. And although McCoy has ridden oddles of winners he's not the best jump jockey out there nevermind ever. Indeed his record of big chase wins isn't that great. Give me Ruby any Saturday in the big races, you can have McCoy at a wet Plumpton on a Monday.

[Adonis First]

Kauto Star is now 10 years old.

Not itself a barrier to success at the highest level (we all remember Desert Orchid, and he was a STONE inferior to Kauto, even at his very best!). But it pays to remember that as they get older, they are more prone to off-days.

That said, I can't see anything in the field that can threaten Kauto if he's as fit and ready as Nichols would have us believe. The danger is that Nichols is applying "spin" to scare the Opposition. Unlikely, but it does happen in the Sport!

I'd think that Kauto will be retired after this season, so every effort is likely to be made to finish "with a bang".

And it's reasonable to suppose that if there were something seriously affecting his chances, they'd keep him at home. To Nichols' credit, I do feel that he would ALWAYS put the Horse first under those circumstances.

 

So.... if you're inclined to trust that he's not "under the weather" for any reason whatsoever..... Evens against a horse 2 STONE ahead of it's nearest competitor is literally a STEAL! If he stands up and isn't under the weather, he wins.

 

There again, Fate always seems to strike when you feel that the advantage is insurmountable.

(No doubt you all remember my assessment of Workforce as the second-best horse I'd ever seen after he won  the Derby, and he went on to finish pretty much LAST in the KG/QE stakes! Then redeemed himself and my balance winning the Arc as he liked).

As Jimmy Greaves wouyld have said "it's a funny old Game".

 

I DEFINITELY wouldn't back against him. I think he'll win.

I'll probably have a small interest on him to be able to claim in future years that "I was on" when he did it (won the KG 5 times).

 

That said....  Kauto Star is not in that 1-Horse league populated solely by Arkle.

Arkle, I'd say, would have been able to give him AT LEAST 2 stone and a beating, at his best.

With McCoy up, maybe 2 1/2 Stone!

['Cos for me, Mc Coy is by a wide margin, the best NH jockey of the last 45 years.]

 

 

 

 

 

[Gordon McIvor Wilson]

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