The inside track for those who need to know

July 2009 Blog Posts (52)

Rondeau 3.30 Ling - interesting money for him

13-2 still available, but into 11-2/ 5-1 on Betfair. Drawn well and unexposed for trainer who likes a tilt now and then. Definite trading possie.

Added by Richard Stoddart on July 22, 2009 at 10:00 — 3 Comments

Predicting Football Matches

Hi all

(New member)

I have just started a blog that really talks about my various research interests (see http://research-reflections.blogspot.com).

My latest post (http://research-reflections.blogspot.com/2009/07/predicting-results-of-football-matches.html) has started to discuss how to predict the outcome of football matches. I have some ideas already (e.g. use the shortest odds, select the home team, look at previous encounters etc.), but I wonder if Sports… Continue

Added by Graham Kendall on July 21, 2009 at 19:35 — 11 Comments

Quick! Get on Notts Co for League 2!

Sven been announced as Director of Football. 10-1 available in the village, yet people wanting to be laid at 9-1 on Betfair! Definite trading possie!

Added by Richard Stoddart on July 21, 2009 at 12:00 — 8 Comments

Chris Wall's horses backed at Yarmouth

Riptide 3.15 Yarm 14-1 into 13-2 (significant money)
Suprise Party 3.45 Yarm 6-1 into 4-1

A course where the Wall stable has a near 20% strike rate, both are ridden by George Baker who has 20% strike rate for Wall at this course. Pretty sure when Wall's horses are backed at Yarnmouth that they are never far away.

Added by Richard Stoddart on July 21, 2009 at 10:30 — 11 Comments

20 ticks: Guilty of Micro-Management?

The number one rule of trading: cut your losing positions, and let your winning positions run. So long as you follow this rule, you'll never go broke and you'll always be in the game. However, big question marks have always existed for me over WHEN to actually cut a losing position. In the past I've normally operated on a 20-tick rule: I'll take a small all-red position if the market moves against me by this amount (unless I've backed a long-shot in which case I treat it as a punt and let it… Continue

Added by BOTS on July 21, 2009 at 10:07 — 5 Comments

Lords Test

A good win but there are plenty of swallows to come. We had the rub by winning the toss and for two days batting conditions were helpful. As soon as the sun goes in at Lords there is likely to be lateral movement. I was there for most of the match and I can assure you that we deserved our victory. There have been plenty of occasions where the Aussies have had the rub and all the right decisions - don't forget the four bad decisiond that Strauss had in Australia last time. What was disturbing… Continue

Added by NEIL RUNKEL on July 21, 2009 at 9:46 — 3 Comments

Get ready to oppose Sea The Stars!

Many of you might think I'm delusional but I'm looking to oppose Sea The Stars in his next three runs - International, Irish Champion and possibly the Breeders' Cup.

It maybe just me, but, the 2000 Guineas aside, STS has had the run of the race in both the Derby and the Eclipse, so much so that I've questioned the race-saviness of the opposing jockeys. In both races Mick Kinane has been allowed the to occupy the box seat and for me not a single jockey has took it upon themselves to… Continue

Added by Richard Stoddart on July 20, 2009 at 20:30 — 4 Comments

Good luck to all.

Well with the Open over for a another year and the second test done and dusted, it is time for The Badger to move on. I have tried over the course of two tests and the golf to inspire conversation and get this place moving but it just not seem to have the numbers yet.

So I depart with good feelings and believe you have the makings of a great place to be but as a full time trader I was really hoping to meet a few people here with similar tastes that could inject serious debate about… Continue

Added by The Badger on July 20, 2009 at 14:48 — 7 Comments

Second Test fifth day.

A day at the Open for me yesterday, hence no cricket posts. More on golf later.

Got home from the golf, disgusted. Saw the replays.

Katich, clear no ball, NOT OUT.

Hussey, bat hit ground, NO edge, NOT OUT

Hughes was "caught" Strauss catch, SHOULD have been referred, batsman given benefit, NOT OUT.

5 wickets down, 3 clear mistakes, plus AT LEAST 2 in first innings.

15 wickets down, 5 major errors, 33% mistakes.

Sack… Continue

Added by The Badger on July 20, 2009 at 9:44 — 2 Comments

Sunday, Sunday

Day of rest, though not for the clergy, and not for the sportsmen. England seem to be following my proposition last week of a win by lunch on Monday - bit of weather neeed to slow them down, maybe.

The GOLF - well, what can I say, the favourite fallen at the first fence, then a clutch of English youngsters fighting the great, old 5timer Tom Watson. Makes me proud to be in my fifties [rubbish, he's 63 if he's a day - Ed]. Tricky courses, these classic Scottish links, Turnberry is the… Continue

Added by Gordon McIvor Wilson on July 19, 2009 at 16:53 — No Comments

THE OPEN is still running, folks

Cant squeeze all the Blogs near the top of the list, so here's a pitch for the GOLF - great comments and valuable insight on the blog a bit further down the list - scroll down and read the Comments. They're popular with the silent majority (sign in, read and depart, unmoved to reply) so I hope Sports Punter is drafting his update as I write...

Added by Gordon McIvor Wilson on July 18, 2009 at 12:15 — 1 Comment

Second Test day three

This test now comes down to the weather, but not the rain as some may think. But clouds. Yes clouds. England need clouds to win from here as shown again yesterday. When the sun was shining brightly and seeing conditions were good, Australia scored freely, with Katich and Hussey both posting good starts despite no fewer than five interruptions to play. They had to get in first and then stop for lunch, then rain, rain,and tea and then the trouble started. The clouds came over and it was gloomy,… Continue

Added by The Badger on July 18, 2009 at 8:38 — 7 Comments

The New Betting Exchange.

As some of you might have worked out we are talking about setting up a new "Betting Exchange"?

Why?

At the moment the market is dominated by Betfair, and let's face it they have got a bit complacent.

Number Two is BETDAQ. On the horse racing front they seem to do quite well. Lots of liquidity and action on the in running markets. Not to mention their excellent tipster DAQMAN. The sports side with the possible exception of Football has never really taken off. Not… Continue

Added by john Tuohy on July 17, 2009 at 9:30 — 30 Comments

Minor 'sports' coming up

Not small Aussies, as you might think, but our 'inclusive' policy requires us to note that there is a bit of a punch-up looming between Amir Khan (he's ours) and Andreas Kotelnik (he's someone else's) - is this win or lose, or is a draw permitted as seems fashionable in our noble outdoor games?

As if this wasnt enough to worry about, Our Man in t'North telegraphs the start of the World Darts Matchplay in towering Blackpool at the weekend. Thoughts of paint drying hover in the back of… Continue

Added by Gordon McIvor Wilson on July 17, 2009 at 8:05 — 1 Comment

Race For LIfe.

Your last chance to sponsor.

My wife is running 5K for Cancer Research at the weekend.

Should be a laugh as she does not really like running.

For more details.

http://www.raceforlifesponsorme.org/louiseshearer2

Added by john Tuohy on July 17, 2009 at 7:38 — 2 Comments

Second Test second day

Well it looks like the second test is a carbon copy of the first. England start well, Australia fight back, and at the end of day one honours are about even. Had they lost only 5 wickets, they would be on top, had they lost 7, Australia would be on top but 6 for 360 odd is about even, with England slightly ahead based on scoring 360 in a day, when the average is 300. So....well done so far.

The predicted betting patterns went exactly to plan with England coming down a touch to a best… Continue

Added by The Badger on July 16, 2009 at 21:21 — 7 Comments

Second Test first day.

After the anticipation of waiting for the first test like a kid at Christmas, this one has a lot of wishful thinking but not much hope. This looks as much of a draw as the first one but for different reasons. How anyone could contemplate backing England is beyond my comprehension, only tragic England supporters and those that don't know much about the game could attempt to extract money from the exchanges on such a foregone conclusion. My new mate sports punter is definitely in the former… Continue

Added by The Badger on July 16, 2009 at 10:04 — 1 Comment

Second Test: titbits from the Long Room

Our man on the inside has just posted some views on the 2nd Test. Find them on the Forum 'comments', or, to save you the effort here, it is:

(From Neil Runkel in the Long Room)

Looks like a certain draw at lords, forecast doesn't look good and the wicket at lords in recent years has been too flat for a result. the only time this my change is if there is lateral movement through the air.

Don't be too dispondent about the last test. the only day there was any… Continue

Added by Gordon McIvor Wilson on July 15, 2009 at 11:40 — No Comments

First Test wash up

Well where do I start... people are saying the aussie captain declared too late. Ponting did not declare too late. If he declared earlier he would have had less runs and still had to bat again. So for me, the declaration was perfect. He knew the rain was coming so he sent them in, and in the fading light and drizzle got two quick ones.

Where he failed in this test, and the press won't let him forget it, is why the hell when you have the biggest rabbit since Glenn McGrath batting, do… Continue

Added by The Badger on July 13, 2009 at 7:41 — 3 Comments

First Test Day 5

Well tomorrow will show us just what England are made of and if they are going to show any fight after bowling themselves into a corner. People were commenting that this pitch would make the result a three day test and would turn square and combined with England's prodigious swing, the Aussies would be 1-0 down heading to Lords.

Well how wrong they all were. I posted on day one how the Glamorgan club had manufactured England a wicket to ensure a draw as they did not wish to go 0-1… Continue

Added by The Badger on July 11, 2009 at 19:43 — 6 Comments

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